Scanning the horizon for the next technology surprise

Technology development is arguably moving faster than ever before. The rate at which novel technologies are emerging and evolving is launching us into a new age of innovation, one that has the potential to surprise even the most astute of experts.

Technology surprise

In the Government Office for Science (GOS), we broadly define ‘technology surprise’ as a disruptive and unexpected development in science or technology. This can bring challenging domestic and international policy issues, lead to substantial socioeconomic impacts, and present wholly new opportunities or risks for government to rise to.

There is a range of ways in which technology surprise might occur, be it a major breakthrough in a particular field, a new application or rapid adoption of an existing technology, or a convergence of different technologies to create new possibilities and use cases.

The role of GOS, led by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser Dame Angela McLean, is to put excellent science advice at the heart of decision making, ensuring the Prime Minister, the Cabinet and policymakers across government have the scientific evidence to react to current and future challenges. By putting in place mechanisms to anticipate technology surprise, we can help government to proactively harness these exciting opportunities (for example, to support and boost adoption) or mitigate the risks that could be around the corner.

How do we anticipate technology surprise and support adoption of emerging technologies?

Horizon scanning is a way of tracking weak signals of change which could increase in magnitude and significance over time. By integrating signals from a variety of sources, including desk research, cross-government knowledge sharing and engagement with experts in industry and academia, GOS can monitor evolving trends in the science and technology world and provide an early warning system for government.

We also go a step further and provide rapid technology assessments on emerging areas of interest, to support government departments to make better strategic decisions on science and technology. These assessments draw together the latest evidence and expert perspectives to give policymakers an accessible, actionable, and timely view of technology developments and associated implications for government. More broadly, teams across GOS can assess emerging technologies using a variety of different methods, ranging from data-driven analysis to longer-term foresight reports.

There is of course still a chance that something happens in the world of science and technology that no one could have predicted. However, our multi-pronged approach of horizon scanning for early signals of change, combined with rigorous in-depth assessments, provides a framework for helping government anticipate surprise and stay one step ahead of the technologies of the future.

Robotics & AI

The public release of ChatGPT and the surge of interest in generative AI that followed can reasonably be considered an example of technology surprise – spurring international action on AI risks and multiple national domestic strategies around the globe to drive AI innovation and adoption. As this has unfolded since late 2022, the horizon scanning signals have been numerous and clear – AI was bringing newfound potential for robotics, riding a wave of innovation and investment.

But what did the future of AI and robotics really look like? What was hype (AI in robotics is not new) and what was based on the robust science and engineering needed to see innovation through to real world use? What could prevent or slow the UK down in its efforts to secure benefits for industry and the public from these potentially exciting developments?

To dive into this, we consulted with over 40 experts around the UK – within government, industry, and academia. Four things quickly became clear.

First, the UK hosts an incredible and diverse range of robotics expertise. This expertise spans sectors from agriculture and manufacturing to energy and healthcare, and from basic R&D through to industry integration. Our analysis of publications, patents, and private investment suggests that the UK produces highly influential robotics research and secures competitive levels of early-stage investment for innovators.

Second, the impacts of AI on how capable future robotic systems are could be substantial – unlocking new capabilities in adaptability to new tasks, autonomy, and deployability in an ever-widening array of sectors and use cases (for example, natural language processing enabling systems to be set up and used by those without extensive knowledge of computer programming languages).

Third, fully harnessing these impacts relies on continued research and development in both AI and robotics. However impressive, large language models and other AI architectures are often imperfect, make errors (often in strange ways), and more work is needed to build the robot specific datasets and AI models to fully unlock the potential.

Finally, the UK faces challenges to maximising the benefits of this increasing convergence of AI and robotics technologies for industry and society.

Regardless of our strengths in research and the exciting breadth of innovations being developed all around the country, the promised benefits rely on increasing industry adoption and fostering an environment which enables domestic innovators to develop, scale and commercialise in an increasingly competitive international context, where supply chains, finance and talent flows are global.

How can you get involved?

We are always keen to engage with the wider science and technology community, not only to ensure that we stay abreast of cutting-edge R&D but also to make sure our advice and support to government draws on the leading global expertise on offer in the UK.

If any of our work on emerging technologies and horizon scanning sounds interesting to you, please get in touch by emailing [email protected].

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