The Chancellor’s Spring Forecast speech was deliberately very light on taxation changes and policy announcements, in line with government briefings that the UK could expect to reap a “stability dividend” resulting from the tax rises and fiscal consolidation of the 2024 and 2025 Autumn Budgets. On the one hand, it is to be welcomed that the government has committed to one fiscal event per year, particularly after the speculation and business uncertainty that preceded the last Budget. On the other hand, this apparent stability and predictability is based on a Spring Forecast that is already outdated. The OBR itself acknowledges this uncertainty on the basis that “conflict in the Middle East, which escalated as we were finalising this document, could have very significant impacts on the global and UK economies.”
Consequently, the Spring Forecast and the Chancellor’s response should be taken with a significant pinch of salt. Nonetheless, the Chancellor’s speech offers some insight into current government thinking and their economic priorities for the coming months.
Macroeconomic indicators
The headline figures from the OBR suggested slower than expected GDP growth in 2026 (1.1%, down from the previously forecast 1.4%). However, economic growth is expected to rise to 1.6% in both 2027 and 2028, up from the previous forecast of 1.5%.
Inflation was forecast to decline from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, while unemployment was forecast to rise to 5.3%. Meanwhile, net migration was set to fall to 235,000 a year on average between 2026 and 2030.
These forecasts do not reflect the latest developments in the Middle East and so may not prove to be accurate.
Economic growth “for a purpose”
The Chancellor used the term “growth” 17 times in her speech, more than in any of her previous Budgets or Spring Statements. This renewed focus on economic growth is broadly encouraging, but these warm words now need to be backed up by action.
The Chancellor emphasised that economic growth is “for a purpose – to make working people better off.” It is correct that economic growth and improving living standards should be mutually reinforcing. And it is by placing the technology sector at the heart of its growth strategy that the government can reignite the UK’s economic dynamism, boost productivity and raise living standards.
An active role for government
The Chancellor also sketched out her vision for “a state that doesn’t stand back, but that steps up…an active and a strategic state, building growth and economic security in an uncertain world.” This language is reminiscent of the Industrial Strategy’s commitment to a state that is an “active partner” and this could be a signal of the government’s renewed interest in Industrial Strategy implementation.
As for the Industrial Strategy’s eight targetsectors (IS-8), the Chancellor’s speech focused primarily on defence, noting her aim to deliver “the biggest uplift in defence spending since the Cold War” and singling out yesterday’s £1 billion helicopter deal between the Ministry of Defence and Leonardo, a techUK member.
What next? And what does this mean for the tech sector?
There were no new policies in the speech, as the Chancellor opted instead to reiterate past announcements including, but not limited to: discounts on business energy costs, trade deals with India, the United States and the European Union, support for entrepreneurs, infrastructure investment, skills funding for further education, and planning reforms. These areas are likely to form the broad contours of the government’s economic policy over the coming months.
The Chancellor’s headroom against her main fiscal rule is estimated at £23.6 billion, larger than the £21.7 billion after the Autumn Budget 2025 and much larger than the £9.9 billion headroom after the Chancellor’s Spring Statement in 2025. Under more normal circumstances, this would bode well for avoiding tax increases on business or other fiscal consolidation in the Autumn Budget 2026. However, given the global economic and geopolitical volatility, there remains significant uncertainty.
Indeed, the government’s goal of economic stability depends, in large part, on world events. For example, energy prices spiked over the weekend as a result of conflict in the Middle East which could have an inflationary impact. Markets now estimate that there is only a 50% chance of an interest rate cut at the Bank of England’s next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 19 March, down from an 80% chance before the conflict began.
Finally, the Chancellor today suggested that new policy announcements would feature in her forthcoming Mais lecture, scheduled for later in March. These announcements would focus on:
Breaking down trade barriers and deepening alliances with Europe
Transforming the UK’s economic geography
And, most significantly for the technology sector, unlocking innovation and harnessing the power of AI
techUK looks forward to engaging with the government in advance of this speech and will provide further analysis in its aftermath.
Antony Walker, Deputy CEO, techUK
"As expected, today’s speech by the Chancellor contained no significant changes to taxation or policy. This stability is welcome and the Chancellor’s frequent references to “growth” are encouraging.
But warm words must be backed up by actions. By placing the technology sector at the heart of its growth strategy, the government can reignite the UK’s economic dynamism, boost productivity, and improve living standards.
We look forward to continuing to engage with the government in these areas in the run up to the Chancellor’s Mais lecture later in March and beyond."
Members can sign up to the Public Policy Group to receive the latest updates on all our policy work, including digital economy policy.
Edward leads the Digital Economy programme at techUK, which includes our work on online safety, fraud, and regulation for growth initiatives.
He has prior experience working for the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport and has previously worked for a number of public affairs consultancies specialising in research and strategy, working with leading clients in the technology and financial services sectors.
Archie Breare joined techUK in September 2022 as the Telecoms Programme intern, and moved into the Policy and Public Affairs team in February 2023.
Before starting at techUK, Archie was a student at the University of Cambridge, completing an undergraduate degree in History and a master's degree in Modern British History.
In his spare time, he likes to read, discuss current affairs, and to try and persuade himself to cycle more.
Oliver is a Junior Policy Manager at techUK, working across Public Affairs and Digital Regulation policy. He supports the organisation’s engagement with government and parliament, contributes to shaping techUK’s regulatory agenda, and plays a key role in coordinating political outreach, policy projects, and flagship events.
He joined techUK in November 2023 as a Team Assistant to the Policy and Public Affairs team, before stepping into his current role. He has been closely involved in efforts to ensure the tech sector’s voice is heard in the policymaking process.
Oliver holds a Master’s in Policy Research from the University of Bristol and a BSc in Policy from Swansea University. During his studies, he contributed to mental health research as a Student Research Assistant for the SMaRteN network.
Outside of work, Oliver is a keen debater and remains active in the UK debating community, having previously led the Swansea University Debating Union. He enjoys exploring complex issues from multiple perspectives and values clear, thoughtful communication in policy discussions.
techUK's Policy and Public Affairs Programme activities
techUK helps our members understand, engage and influence the development of digital and tech policy in the UK and beyond. We support our members to understand some of the most complex and thorny policy questions that confront our sector. Visit the programme page here.
Tech Policy Conference 2026 I 16 March
Join policymakers and tech leaders at techUK’s Tech Policy Conference 2026 to shape the policies that will define the future of the UK tech sector.
Our members develop strong networks, build meaningful partnerships and grow their businesses as we all work together to create a thriving environment where industry, government and stakeholders come together to realise the positive outcomes tech can deliver.
Antony Walker is deputy CEO of techUK, which he played a lead role in launching in November 2013.
Antony is a member of the senior leadership team and has overall responsibility for techUK’s policy work. Prior to his appointment in July 2012 Antony was chief executive of the Broadband Stakeholder Group (BSG), the UK’s independent advisory group on broadband policy. Antony was closely involved in the development of broadband policy development in the UK since the BSG was established in 2001 and authored several major reports to government. He also led the development of the UK’s world leading Open Internet Code of Practice that addresses the issue of net neutrality in the UK. Prior to setting up the BSG, Antony spent six years working in Brussels for the American Chamber of Commerce following and writing about telecoms issues and as a consultant working on EU social affairs and environmental issues. Antony is a graduate of Aberdeen University and KU Leuven and is also a Policy Fellow Alumni of the Centre for Science and Policy at Cambridge University.
Nimmi Patel is the Associate Director of Policy at techUK. She works on all things skills, education, and future of work policy, focusing on upskilling and retraining. Nimmi is also an Advisory Board member of the Digital Futures at Work Research Centre (digit). The Centre’s research aims to increase understanding of how digital technologies are changing work and the implications for employers, workers, job seekers, and governments.
Prior to joining the techUK team, she worked for the UK Labour Party and New Zealand Labour Party, and holds an MA in Strategic Communications at King’s College London and BA in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from the University of Manchester. She also took part in the 2024-25 University of Bath Institute for Policy Research Policy Fellowship Programme and is the Education and Skills Policy Co-lead for Labour in Communications.
As Head of Public Affairs, Alice supports techUK’s strategic engagement with Westminster, Whitehall and beyond. She regularly works to engage with ministers, members of the UK’s parliaments and senior civil servants on techUK’s work advocating for the role of technology in the UK’s economy as well as wider society.
Alice joined techUK in 2022. She has experience working at both a political monitoring company, leading on the tech, media and telecoms portfolio there, and also as an account manager in a Westminster-based public affairs agency. She has a degree from the University of Sheffield in Politics and Philosophy.
Edward leads the Digital Economy programme at techUK, which includes our work on online safety, fraud, and regulation for growth initiatives.
He has prior experience working for the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport and has previously worked for a number of public affairs consultancies specialising in research and strategy, working with leading clients in the technology and financial services sectors.
Samiah Anderson is the Head of Digital Regulation at techUK.
With over seven years of Government Affairs expertise, Samiah has built a solid reputation as a tech policy specialist, engaging regularly with UK Government Ministers, senior civil servants and UK Parliamentarians.
Before joining techUK, Samiah led several public affairs functions for international tech firms and coalitions at Burson Global (formerly Hill & Knowlton), delivering CEO-level strategic counsel on political, legislative, and regulatory issues in the UK, EU, US, China, India, and Japan. She is adept at mobilising multinational companies and industry associations, focusing on cross-cutting digital regulatory issues such as competition, artificial intelligence, and more.
She holds a BA (Hons) in Politics, Philosophy, and Economics from the University of London, where she founded the New School Economics Society, the Goldsmiths University chapter of Rethinking Economics.
Jake has been the Policy Manager for Skills and Future of Work since May 2022, supporting techUK's work to empower the UK to skill, attract and retain the brightest global talent, and prepare for the digital transformations of the future workplace.
Previously, Jake was the Programme Assistant for Policy. He joined techUK in March 2019 and has also worked across the EU Exit, International Trade, and Cloud, Data Analytics and AI programmes.
He also holds an MA in International Relations from the University of Sussex, as well as a BA(Hons) in International Politics from Aberystwyth University. During his time at Aberystwyth University, he won the International Politics Dissertation Prize.
Archie Breare joined techUK in September 2022 as the Telecoms Programme intern, and moved into the Policy and Public Affairs team in February 2023.
Before starting at techUK, Archie was a student at the University of Cambridge, completing an undergraduate degree in History and a master's degree in Modern British History.
In his spare time, he likes to read, discuss current affairs, and to try and persuade himself to cycle more.
Dani joined techUK in February 2025 as a Policy Manager in the Digital Regulation team.
Prior to this, Dani worked in political monitoring where she was a consultant for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport. In this role, she developed a strong understanding of parliamentary procedure, closely following all of the major developments in the tech centre and working with several key stakeholders and regulators.
She has an undergraduate degree in History from the University of Bristol and an MPhil in Modern European History from the University of Cambridge.
Outside of tech, Dani has a strong interest in addiction policy, particularly towards drugs, having written her dissertation on the topic as well as several subsequent research projects. In her spare time, she enjoys cooking and following all things motoring, whether that be F1, MotoGP or Formula E.
Oliver is a Junior Policy Manager at techUK, working across Public Affairs and Digital Regulation policy. He supports the organisation’s engagement with government and parliament, contributes to shaping techUK’s regulatory agenda, and plays a key role in coordinating political outreach, policy projects, and flagship events.
He joined techUK in November 2023 as a Team Assistant to the Policy and Public Affairs team, before stepping into his current role. He has been closely involved in efforts to ensure the tech sector’s voice is heard in the policymaking process.
Oliver holds a Master’s in Policy Research from the University of Bristol and a BSc in Policy from Swansea University. During his studies, he contributed to mental health research as a Student Research Assistant for the SMaRteN network.
Outside of work, Oliver is a keen debater and remains active in the UK debating community, having previously led the Swansea University Debating Union. He enjoys exploring complex issues from multiple perspectives and values clear, thoughtful communication in policy discussions.
Tess joined techUK as an Policy and Public Affairs Team Assistant in November of 2024. In this role, she supports areas such as administration, member communications and media content.
Before joining the Team, she gained experience working as an Intern in both campaign support for MPs and Councilors during the 2024 Local and General Election, and working for the Casimir Pulaski Foundation on defence and international secuirty. She has worked for multiple charities, on issues such as the climate crisis, educational inequality and Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG). In 2023, Tess obtained her Bachelors of Arts in Politics and International Relations from the University of Nottingham.
Join us on 16 March for techUK’s annual Policy Conference, bringing together senior leaders from government, regulators, industry and academia to discuss the key issues shaping UK tech.
