We Have Lift Off: The Countdown to Clean Orbits Has Begun
Space is rapidly becoming the world’s most congested frontier. What was once a domain of scientific exploration is now a crowded commercial arena, a global infrastructure layer critical to communications, navigation, climate monitoring, and defence. Yet this dependence is threatened by a growing, largely invisible hazard: orbital debris.
The European Space Agency’s Zero Debris Technical Booklet is an ambitious and welcome step toward solving this problem. It offers a framework for achieving a debris-neutral orbital environment by 2030, outlining the technical priorities needed to safeguard access to space for generations to come.
But strategy and policy alone are not enough. Delivering the Zero Debris Vision will depend on industry’s ability to move from commitment to capability, from regulation to real-world implementation as Richard Jacklin, Commercial Lead for Space at Plextek and James Snape, Founder of Aphelion Industries explore…
The Scale of the Challenge
The data tells a stark story. The number of active satellites orbiting Earth is projected to surge from 12,000 today to over 40,000 by the early 2030s with each new launch into orbit increasing the risk of collision exponentially.
Current estimates put annual losses from space debris collisions at $100 million USD, most occurring between 600 and 900 kilometres altitude, the same orbital band where much of our critical infrastructure resides. By 2030, this figure could exceed $1 billion per year, demonstrating that this problem is only set to grow in scale .
And even if humanity were to stop launching new satellites tomorrow, orbital debris would still multiply for years to come. Over 140 million fragments smaller than one centimetre now orbit Earth, joined by more than 1.2 million between one and ten centimetres in size. Only a tiny fraction, roughly 1%, can be tracked with any reliability. These may seem small and insignificant, but they are anything but. For instance, a clear example from the European Space Agency reported a 7mm chip was found in one of the windows on the International Space Station’s Cupola, caused by “a tiny piece of space debris, possibly a paint flake or small metal fragment no bigger than a few thousandths of a millimetre across”. This is clear proof that these micro-fragments are not just a theoretical risk, they are hitting operational spacecraft and leaving lasting damage as we speak.
This means that most of the threat is invisible to us on earth, and the industry remains heavily reliant on theoretical models rather than sustained, in-orbit observation. Without better data, policy enforcement becomes guesswork, and risk management becomes reactive instead of preventative.
From Policy to Practice: A Systems Approach
ESA’s Zero Debris Vision sets six priority goals: preventing debris release, ensuring clearance at end-of-life, preventing break-ups, improving surveillance, avoiding ground casualties, and mitigating adverse consequences. These are not abstract aspirations, they are engineering and operational challenges that must be met with measurable solutions.
Meeting these goals requires a systems approach that combines prevention, protection, and prediction:
The path to zero debris lies not in any single technology but in the integration of these capabilities and a satellite network capable of detecting and avoiding trackable threats while withstanding untrackable ones will create true orbital resilience.
This technological ecosystem must be underpinned by transparent data-sharing frameworks and open innovation partnerships, linking commercial, defence, and scientific stakeholders. The challenge cannot be solved by any one organisation or agency; it will take a coalition of innovators working toward a shared operational goal.
Economics of Debris: The Cost of Inaction
In the aerospace industry, the financial stakes are high, and not limited to spacecraft operators alone. The space insurance market offers a clear warning. Out of roughly 13,000 active satellites, only about 300 are insured, and most collision-related losses are excluded from coverage. When unquantified risk dominates, insurers pull back, premiums spike, and investor confidence erodes.
During the 2018/2019 insurance crisis, underwriters paid out more than they earned, forcing some to withdraw from the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) market altogether. The message was clear: without reliable data and improved survivability, space is uninsurable.
The economic case for action is therefore overwhelming. Investment in orbital debris prevention and protection yields exponential returns by reducing insurance volatility, enabling sustained private investment, and ensuring that access to space remains commercially viable.
Conversely, the cost of inaction is existential. If certain orbits become too hazardous to use, global communications, navigation, and Earth observation could be disrupted for decades.
OECD modelling indicates that a Kessler Syndrome event could inflict USD $191 billion in immediate global losses, while broader economic forecasts estimate sustained long-term damage of roughly 1.95 percent of global GDP.
Policy Alone Won’t Get Us There
ESA’s leadership has galvanised the global conversation, but funding and implementation lag far behind the scale of the problem.
National budgets tell the story. The UK Space Agency’s 2025/26 plan, for instance, allocates only £4 million to In-Orbit Servicing, Assembly and Manufacturing, less than 1% of its total budget, despite identifying it as key to space sustainability. Across Europe, similar funding asymmetries persist between strategic rhetoric and technological execution.
To close this gap, policymakers must embrace dual-use innovation, recognising that technologies developed for defence, communications, or lunar exploration can also underpin debris mitigation and orbital safety. Conversely, space-safety technologies should be recognised as serving national security and industrial strategy objectives.
Funding models must evolve beyond linear grants toward hybrid public-private frameworks that incentivise operational deployment. Space debris management is a public good, but it will only scale sustainably through private sector participation and market mechanisms.
The Next 24 Months: A Critical Decision Window
The next two years will determine whether the world achieves ESA’s 2030 target or misses it by a generation. The urgency is compounded by the exponential growth of mega-constellations and thousands of satellites being launched into already crowded orbital lanes.
This expansion is both opportunity and risk. Each new network brings global connectivity, but also raises the probability of collision cascades that could lock humanity out of Low Earth Orbit entirely.
If industry acts now, deploying measurement instruments, refining shielding systems, sharing data, and standardising end-of-life procedures, the 2030 milestone remains achievable. If not, the orbital commons may degrade beyond repair.
The Time to Act Is Now
ESA’s Zero Debris Vision offers more than a regulatory target, it represents a test of global innovation, collaboration, and moral responsibility. The technology exists. The knowledge exists. What’s required is the collective will to fund, integrate, and deploy it at speed.
The orbital environment humanity inherits in 2030 will be the direct consequence of choices made in the next 12 to 24 months. The window for preventative action is closing fast.
Achieving a debris-neutral future will not happen through policy statements or conference declarations. It will happen when industry leaders, agencies, and governments align resources and act decisively to transform science fiction into strategy, ensuring space remains a sustainable, secure domain for all.
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Meet the team
Sophie Greaves
Associate Director, Digital Infrastructure, techUK
Sophie Greaves is Associate Director for Digital Infrastructure at techUK, overseeing the Communications Infrastructure and Services Programme at techUK, and the UK Spectrum Policy Forum.
Sophie was promoted to Head having been Programme Manager for Communications Infrastructure and Services, leading techUK's telecoms activities, engagement and policy development. Previously, Sophie was Programme Assistant across a variety of areas including the Broadband Stakeholder Group, Central Government, Financial Services and Communications Infrastructure programmes.
Prior to joining techUK, Sophie completed a masters in Film Studies at University College London; her dissertation examined US telecoms policy relating to net neutrality and content distribution.
- Email:
- [email protected]
- Phone:
- 0207 331 2038
- LinkedIn:
- https://www.linkedin.com/in/sophiegreaves/
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Phil Reid
Head of Telecoms and Spectrum Policy, techUK
Phil is acting Head of Telecoms and Spectrum policy at techUK, where he leads the Communications, Infrastructure and Services Programme. This focuses on promoting the benefits and innovations of connectivity and tackles the barriers of digital infrsatructre rollout.
Phil's background lies in public affairs and policy, supporting numerous organisations to navigate their policy landscape, build their political profile and engage on key issues with impact. His previous roles were predominantly in consultancy but he has also had extensive experience in establishing and manging both trade bodies and campaign groupings; leading their secretariat functions as well as their public affairs and communications activities.
Telecoms has been an ever-constant sector focus during his career, covering an array of issues such as IP-migration, broadband rollout, net neutrality, telecoms fraud, network resilience and security. He has a strong understanding of the sector ecosytem, its major policy issues and has had plenty of interaction with its key stakeholders.
Outside of work, if he's not enjoying family time with his wife and two daughters, he'll be either playing or watching some form of sport.
- Email:
- [email protected]
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Tales Gaspar
Programme Manager, UK SPF and Satellite, techUK
Tales has a background in law and economics, with previous experience in the regulation of new technologies and infrastructure.
In the UK and Europe, he offered consultancy on intellectual property rights of cellular and IoT technologies and on the regulatory procedures at the ITU as a Global Fellow at the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI).
Tales has an LL.M in Law and Business by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) and an MSc in Regulation at the London School of Economics, with a specialization in Government and Law.
- Email:
- [email protected]
- Phone:
- +44 (0) 0207 331 2000
- Website:
- www.techUK.org
- LinkedIn:
- www.linkedin.com/in/talesngaspar
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Josh Turpin
Programme Manager, Telecoms and Net Zero, techUK
Josh joined techUK as a Programme Manager for Telecoms and Net Zero in August 2024.
In this role, working jointly across the techUK Telecoms and Climate Programmes, Josh is responsible for leading on telecoms infrastructure deployment and uptake and supporting innovation opportunities, as well as looking at how the tech sector can be further utilised in the UK’s decarbonisation efforts.
Prior to joining techUK, Josh’s background was in public affairs and communications, working for organisations across a diverse portfolio of sectors including defence, telecoms and infrastructure; aiding clients through stakeholder engagement, crisis communications, media outreach as well as secretariat duties.
Outside of work, Josh has a keen interest in music, painting and sailing.
- Email:
- [email protected]
- Phone:
- 020 7331 2038
- LinkedIn:
- https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-turpin/
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Authors
Richard Jacklin
Commercial Lead, Plextek
James Snape
Founder, Aphelion Industries
