Navigating the shifting currents in the global trade landscape

In today’s tech sector, the challenge isn’t just staying ahead of competitors or managing regulation, it’s navigating a global trade landscape that’s evolving at breakneck speed, rewriting the rules as it goes, shaped heavily by geopolitical shifts and rising trade tensions.

Over the past few months, I’ve spoken with founders and CFOs of scaling tech businesses and while they each come with different products and ambitions, the questions are strikingly similar: "How do we keep momentum internationally when every new market comes with its own set of rules? Where’s the smart growth now? And what should we be baking into our model upfront, so we don’t hit costly roadblocks down the line?"

It’s a fair concern. The global trade environment in 2025 looks very different to even two years ago. We’re dealing with rising economic nationalism, tightening data and AI laws, carbon border taxes, the growing weaponisation of tech supply chains. At the same time, digital trade routes are opening in ways we’ve never seen before. It’s not all headwinds, but you do need a sharper sail.

Fragmentation is the Default. Plan for It

The global trade environment is fragmenting, fast. It’s no longer a level playing field. Tech companies are facing what the IMF has called “a slow but steady shift toward regionalisation” with trade flows increasingly shaped by politics rather than pure economics.

You can see this in the numbers. In 2024, over 70 new digital and AI-related trade restrictions were introduced globally, double the figure from 2022. The US, EU and China are all pushing their own data residency, AI model transparency and export controls, which means businesses operating across multiple regions are having to build more complex infrastructure just to stay compliant.

We’re seeing this firsthand with a client in the machine learning space that recently expanded into the US and Germany. What should have been a simple go-to-market strategy turned into three separate deployment architectures, thanks to different rules on data privacy, cloud hosting and AI auditing. It added 12% to their costs but, crucially, it protected revenue in two critical markets.

Lesson? Plan for fragmentation. Assume each market may need a bespoke solution and embed modular compliance, adaptable payments, and tailored data governance into your architecture.

Smarter, Faster, Leaner

One of the biggest shifts happening – and it’s a positive one – is the adoption of AI and automation in global trade operations. A few years ago, terms like “predictive logistics” or “machine-readable customs” felt like innovation theatre. Today, they’re very real.

Amazon, for example, has been quietly using reinforcement learning models to reroute international shipments based on live weather and port congestion data. And Flexport’s latest AI-powered supply chain platform is now handling over $30 billion in trade volume annually. Even small-scale exporters are plugging into smarter trade infrastructure.

This is especially useful for tech companies shipping hardware, components or IoT devices. One of our clients in network security hardware shaved three days off their average cross-border shipping time by integrating with a customs automation platform that uses natural language processing to classify goods in minutes, not hours. That’s not just a logistics win; it’s a working capital improvement.

The Rise of Borderless Finance

If you’re running a SaaS business or digital platform with global clients, payments used to be one of the biggest friction points. Long waits, opaque fees, inconsistent KYC are a real blocker.

That’s changed dramatically. Platforms like Airwallex, Stripe Treasury and Wise Business have built out serious global payment infrastructure. You can now invoice in a multitude of currencies, get paid in local accounts, and run FX conversions on demand all without touching a high-street bank.

One CFO I spoke to recently told me they now do 95% of their non-UK invoicing through a single fintech stack. “We don’t even think about ‘cross-border’ anymore,” he said. “It’s just business.”

We’re also seeing early adoption of stablecoins, particularly for recurring payments and treasury movements in markets with volatile currencies or fragile banking infrastructure. And this isn’t about hype, it’s about commercial practicality.

It’s still early days for most mainstream tech businesses, but the infrastructure is improving fast. With new regulatory frameworks like MiCA in the EU and the UK’s Digital Securities Sandbox, it’s becoming a much safer, cleaner play.

Sustainability is the New Compliance Frontier

Sustainability is where it gets interesting, and urgent. Environmental compliance is fast becoming a precondition for international growth, especially into the EU.

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) formally entered its transitional phase in 2024, with full implementation expected from 2026. If you’re exporting physical goods into the EU, you now have to report on the embedded carbon emissions in your products or risk facing tariffs.

We know of manufacturing businesses that have been caught out when distributors flagged potential CBAM issues in the supply chain. The result? An accelerated supplier review process and a pivot to cleaner materials. All within weeks.

It’s not just hardware firms either. We’re seeing ESG due diligence creeping into SaaS procurement, especially with enterprise and public sector buyers. Scope 3 emissions, diversity metrics, governance protocols, all of these are starting to impact how contracts are awarded.

What should you be doing? Build carbon accounting into your supply chain reporting early. The tools are improving, and it will give you a competitive edge.

The Tariff of the Digital Age

You’ve probably felt this already but it’s worth stating plainly: data localisation is the new tariff. The rise of sovereign cloud requirements, AI transparency laws and cross-border data transfer rules are turning infrastructure into a compliance minefield.

And it’s only accelerating. Companies using high-risk systems must demonstrate explainability and control. The US, EU and UK all have emerging AI regulatory framework and assurance requirements in process.

If your platform handles user data, ML models or personalisation features, this is already your problem. Plan your infrastructure like you would plan your product: with local needs, legal constraints and long-term flexibility in mind.

Best Practice: Building Resilience into Global Plans

Here are some of the key actions we’re advising tech companies to consider right now:

International trade has always evolved but in 2025, it’s doing so at pace and with more complexity than most businesses are used to. For the tech sector, though, that complexity is where the opportunities are.

You’re not just building software or shipping devices, you’re navigating a world of digital tariffs, AI guardrails and carbon footprints. That’s the new game. And those who understand that early will be the ones who move faster, scale smarter, and win globally.

If you’re thinking about how your business can stay ahead of these changes or want to explore practical steps to future-proof your international strategy, get in touch. At Moore Kingston Smith, we’re working alongside tech companies every day to turn uncertainty into advantage.

techUK International Policy and Trade Programme activities

techUK supports members with their international trade plans and aspirations. We help members to understand market opportunities, tackle market access barriers, and build partnerships in their target market. Visit the programme page here.