Using analytics to forecast the global impact of COVID-19

Written by Ken Miller, Product Director at Panintelligence


There has been no doubt concerning the continued devastation that the Coronavirus pandemic has created across the entire world – and yet we’re still very much at the coalface. 

This indiscriminate global demolition of our populations, health services and global economy is happening in real-time – and there are people on the frontline who need our help. 

That’s why we’re appealing to the UK government and our incredible NHS to offer support. We can embed our business intelligence software and expertise into systems quickly, enabling key decision-makers to dissect live data, and help global leaders to come together to terminate this deadly virus once and for all. 

The death toll is rising by the second but – alongside the incredible work our vastly over-stretched emergency services are currently providing – those who are in a position to make live, life-saving decisions require the critical data that can be visualised, analysed with software that can be deployed quickly and predict scenarios. 

At Panintelligence, we’re a proud UK-based – and built – analytics firm that utilises business intelligence software to help a range of sectors and SMEs make better business decisions. In response to the current climate, we’ve been utilising our in-depth analytics to break down data and have already started work on a ‘war room’ type dashboard to showcase our real-time findings. 

We know there is a wealth of analytics out there, but what’s needed are critical decisions to be made now. With our platform, we can deploy such software in days, all we need now is some assistance from our fellow techUK members to see exactly how we can help – and who we need to speak to. 

But before all that, it’s worth understanding exactly what kind of critical data we’ve already been able to extract following the Coronavirus outbreak. 

Utilising our ‘what if’ modelling dashboards – and gleaning data from worldometer – we can instantly compare the state of play for the UK to that of Italy. Both have very similar health systems and population demographics, so provide for a strong comparative model. 

Our dashboard uses a ‘what if’ field to compare figures, allowing us to move the Italian date forward so that we can effectively analyse the predicted curves (pictured below). 

Following this exercise, we’ve found that the closest match shows the UK as being 15 days behind Italy’s Covid-19 outbreak and we can use this as a model of how and when our vital services are likely to be hit hardest. 

Data as at 8 April 2020 (Italian data offset by 15 days – Spain data offset by nine days)

 

Comparing the Italian government’s lockdown roll-out on 9th March 2020 to the UK’s version 14 days later on 23rd March, our data suggests we’re one to two days ahead of Italy in terms of the lockdown’s impact. However, we now appear to be ahead of Italy comparatively suggesting that over the next two weeks, our resources will be stretched and tested to a greater extent than our European counterparts. We can now see for the data that we’re tackling somewhere between Italian and Spanish mortality figures on a time-adjusted basis.

Additionally, we can see that, thankfully, the numbers in both Italy and Spain have peaked. 

Our dashboard could help us to delve into the data even further. We have simulated what accessing data from applications, such as Nervecentre, could provide. This is a system used by the NHS to track patient flow and capacity – and enable to drill down the numbers and locations of Intensive Care Unit critical care unit beds currently available (shown in the first image below).

 

So, where does all this insight lead to? It allows us to bring together population and demographic data so that we can create a dashboard that’s able to forecast ITU requirements and availability during the Coronavirus outbreak.

We know there’s a real pinch-point due to a lack of staff – as well as the availability of anaesthetists and specialist nurses alongside the critical need for respirators. But we want to help, and we need the government and NHS’s backing to do so, alongside techUK members’ assistance!

To aid our plight, what we believe we need next are two systems to gather the data from, so that we can maximise our dashboard. These are the Nervecentre, to analyse availability, and HealthRoster to show staff availability, shifts and location.

Our product and team are ready, and we just want to help. We’d love to speak to fellow techUK members to hear your thoughts – get in touch!


Based in Yeadon, West Yorkshire, Panintelligence is a UK-built, trusted global supplier and leading channel-focused provider. Its highly intuitive business intelligence dashboard vastly improves reporting and delivers ROI for a range of sectors – including finance, insurance, education and healthcare.

We are offering a free package and support to new customers in Yorkshire that have had their operations severely impacted by the Coronavirus pandemic. Full terms to enquire about the offer are available at: www.panintelligence.com/continuity or please contact: 0113 818 7040.

Alternatively, Panintelligence is now live on the AWS Marketplace – to take advantage of our free support provision, visit: https://tinyurl.com/tx2xzwd

  • Max Chen

    Max Chen

    Policy Manager | Digital Adoption
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